Did you ever heard of the word “advantage player”? Basically, it’s a label that several gambling operators are assigning to players who are betting only when the odds are leaning into their favor.
Despite the fact that average bookmakers have 4.55 percent advantage on a straight bet, the secret term here is “average”; an advantage player will sift through bets in which the bookmaker has a negative advantage. Whether your objective is becoming a professional sports bettor or simply to earn a bit of money, the initial step to win is by not making EV bets.
The Flip a Coin Test
The expected value is the term that experienced gamblers are using too often. As a mean to explain this, say that you and a friend has decided to flip a coin.
The moment that the coin is flipped and you gave 1 dollar if the outcome will be heads and your friend will give you a dollar if it is tails. The coin can be flipped for as many as you want and neither will have an advantage.
Now say that you get tired of flipping coins and decided to quit but your friend begged you to stay and offered a better deal. The new deal is now 1.10 dollar for each head and you still pay a dollar for every tails. As your friend offer you such proposition, every flip is an advantage for you. This is what happens in the sports betting world between you and the bookmakers.